2018 e-Systems College Football Pool – Week 4 Results

In 2004, ESPN developed a metric known as the Football Power Index, or FPI for short, to forecast the results of college football games and seasons. When evaluating an individual matchup, the FPI determines the favorite and their likelihood of winning as a percentage. In last week’s Virginia Tech – Old Dominion game, the FPI calculated that Virginia Tech had a 98.2% chance of winning. There were many reasons for thinking this – Virginia Tech is a Power 5 school, while Old Dominion is in Conference USA; the Hokies were undefeated, while the Monarchs were winless (including a painful 52-10 loss to Liberty in the first game of the season); the Monarchs had only been playing football in the modern era since 2009 and as an FBS program since 2014; ODU would have to play their backup quarterback after the first series of the game; the list could go on and on. But that’s why they play the games. In perhaps the biggest upset the season will see, the Monarchs shocked Virginia Tech 49-35, rolling up 632 yards of offense along the way. ODU’s upset of the 28.5-point favorite Hokies marked the biggest upset in the history of the FPI metric. You just never know…

Meanwhile, in Norman, Oklahoma, Army was looking to make history of its own. The Black Knights hadn’t beaten a ranked team since 1972, and hadn’t won against a top-10 team since 1963. But Saturday night they gave the Sooners everything they could handle before succumbing 28-21 in overtime. Army outgained Oklahoma 379-355, held onto the ball for nearly three-quarters of the game (44:41), converted 13 of 21 third-down attempts, and ran 87 total plays to the Sooners’ 40 (the third-fewest number of plays OU has ever run in a game, and the fewest in a win by a team this year). Army had not one, but two 16-play touchdown drives.  They stopped Oklahoma on fourth-and-1 with 12:23 to go in the game, then methodically took over ten minutes off of the clock driving down the field until a costly interception gave the ball back to Oklahoma, who promptly missed a field goal to win at the buzzer before getting the victory in extra time. The game was on pay-per-view, and may very well have been worth the price of admission!

Out in Eugene, Oregon fans had to be wondering what happened. The Ducks were handily beating Stanford, 24-7. Three minutes were left in the third quarter, and Oregon wide receiver Jaylon Redd appeared to have taken the ball into the end zone for another score to put the game out of reach. However, replay ruled that he was out of bounds before crossing the goal line, putting the ball back at the one. Three plays later, a bad snap turned into a scoop-and-score for Stanford linebacker Joey Alfieri to make it 24-14. Despite that, and allowing another quick Stanford score afterwards, Oregon had another chance to put the game away with a minute and a half to go. One first down would have done it; instead, a costly fumble gave the ball back to the Cardinal, who drove down the field and kicked a game-tying field goal with no time left to send the game to overtime. The extra period was all Stanford, as Oregon’s defense couldn’t stop the Cardinal passing game. Quarterback K. J. Costello got the final 23 of his 327 passing yards on a touchdown strike to Colby Parkinson, and the Stanford defense stopped the Quack Attack to preserve the improbable 38-31 triumph. How improbable? Back to ESPN’s win probability statistics we go. At the moment before the first-and-goal play following the replay that overturned the touchdown, FPI calculated the Ducks’ chances of victory at 99%.

In small-school news, Illinois State wants to make the Missouri Valley Football Conference a three-team race! The FCS Redbirds, who are now 3-0 on the young season, went to Colorado State this weekend and knocked off the Rams, 35-19. Illinois State, which was picked to finish fifth in its own conference in the preseason media poll, took home a tidy $375,000 check for their trouble as well. The Missouri Valley Football Conference is the home to perennial power and current FCS #1 North Dakota State, but it’s also got South Dakota State, which is ranked #3 in FCS. Those two teams play this weekend in a rivalry game for the Dakota Marker, a model replica of the historic border markers that were placed when the Dakota Territory was split into the two states between 1891 and 1892. Don’t assume that the Bison will automatically win this game, either – South Dakota State has won two of the last three meetings. Illinois State gets their shot against these two back-to-back, on October 20 (NDSU) and 27 (SDSU).

Congratulations to El Dude-arino, who wins week 4 with 249 points! In second place was verntroyer, who had 244 points, and BEVO was third with 240 points.

Standings after four weeks:

We’re finally into the thick of the conference slate, and with that comes more ranked-versus-ranked matchups! Five such games are on the lineup this week, so make your picks wisely! The first game this weekend is North Carolina at Miami (FL), Thursday, September 24 @ 8 PM ET, so make sure to get your picks in by then!