2016 e-Systems College Football Pool – Week 11 Results

On one sideline, there stood Jim Harbaugh. His top-5 Michigan team was clinging to a lead, but now Iowa had their kicker out to attempt a short field goal for the win, and he could do no more to affect the outcome of the game.  On the other sideline, there was Kirk Ferentz. His Hawkeyes were just about to knock off the mighty maize and blue, but he had to trust in his kicker.  The ball was placed, the kick was made – and it was good, giving Iowa the win.  The crowd erupted and charged onto the field as the rest of the Hawkeyes dogpiled the kicker in sheer joy.

It was October 19, 1985.

Jim Harbaugh was the starting quarterback for #2 Michigan, which led 10-9 before that fateful kick.  Kirk Ferentz was not the head coach, but the offensive line coach for the #1 (at the time) Hawkeyes.  And the kicker’s name was Rob Houghtlin, whose name is still revered in Iowa City, but now has Keith Duncan.  That day also served as the last day before this past Saturday where the #2, #3, and #4 teams all lost on the same day (in 1985, #3 Oklahoma lost to Miami, and #4 Arkansas lost to Texas). Everything that was old is new again.

Considering the craziness, it might be useful to have a primer on who’s got a chance to win a championship. So here’s a helpful (for this week, anyway) breakdown of every FBS conference and division.

American – East Division: Temple and South Florida are both 5-1; the Owls own the tiebreaker over USF, so win out and they’re in.  South Florida needs a Temple loss and to win out.  It’s also possible for Central Florida to win if they win out and Temple loses their last two games.

American – West Division: Navy effectively has a two-game lead over Houston. If they win one of their next two games against East Carolina and SMU, they win the division. Houston needs two Navy losses and a win over Memphis to win. Tulsa could also theoretically win if Navy and Houston lose all their remaining conference games and they win out.

ACC – Atlantic: pretty simple. If Clemson beats Wake Forest this week, they win the division. If Clemson loses, Louisville takes it.

ACC – Coastal: fairly straightforward. Virginia Tech wins with either a win over Virginia or a North Carolina loss to NC State. The Tar Heels have to hope for an upset by the Cavaliers over the Hokies and a win against the Wolfpack.

Big Twelve: If Oklahoma wins out, they become the first team since the Big XII went to a round-robin format to go 9-0 in conference. However, their last two games are against the other two teams with a chance to win the conference: West Virginia and Oklahoma State. If Oklahoma State wins out, they win the conference by virtue of having the tiebreaker over both Oklahoma and West Virginia. West Virginia must beat Oklahoma and hope for an Oklahoma State loss to ensure a conference win. Oklahoma could also win the Big XII if they lose one of those games, as long as OSU and WVU each lose again as well.

Big Ten – East: Despite the loss to Iowa, Michigan still wins the division if they win out. However, that involves beating Ohio State in Columbus, not an easy prospect. If they falter against the Buckeyes, Penn State would win it if they win out based upon their head-to-head win over OSU. Ohio State now needs Penn State to lose against either Rutgers or Michigan State to have a chance.

Big Ten – West: Let’s start with the simplest scenario. Wisconsin wins out: they win. A loss against Purdue or Minnesota, and Nebraska takes the division if they win out. After that, things get murky really quickly. It’s even possible to have a four-way tie at the top – with two different sets of teams!  According to ESPN’s FPI calculations, though, there’s basically a 0.1% chance that a team not named Wisconsin or Nebraska wins the division, so I’d not worry too much about it.

Conference USA – East: Western Kentucky wins with a win over Marshall or a loss by Old Dominion against either FAU or FIU.  Old Dominion can only win with a WKU loss against the Thundering Herd and winning out.

Conference USA – West: Louisiana Tech is the division champion.

MAC – East: Ohio takes the division with one win in their final two games against Central Michigan and Akron. Miami of Ohio can only win it if the Bobcats lose both and they beat Ball State.

MAC  – West: Western Michigan, as mentioned above, is undefeated. But they are not out of the woods yet. Toledo also controls their own destiny; a win over Ball State this week and they play the Broncos for all the marbles the following week.

Mountain West – Mountain: three teams currently have 5-1 records: Boise State, New Mexico, and Wyoming. They cannot all finish with one loss: Wyoming plays New Mexico play next week. Only Wyoming controls their destiny by winning out, as they hold the head-to-head against BSU and the Broncos hold it against New Mexico. Things should be clearer after this weekend.

Mountain West – West: San Diego State is the division champion.

Pac-12 – North: only Washington and Washington State can win the division. If Washington loses and Washington State wins this weekend: the Cougars are the division champ. Otherwise, the winner of the Apple Cup rivalry game between the two will crown the winner.

Pac 12 – South: At 6-1 in the division, Colorado controls its destiny. Win out, and the Buffaloes are the champs. But 5-2 Utah controls its destiny as well: the Buffaloes and Utes play in two weeks. If Utah wins out, they hold the tiebreakers over both USC and Colorado. USC could also still win, but needs to beat UCLA and for both Colorado and Utah to lose once.

SEC – East: if Florida beats LSU in the makeup game from Hurricane Matthew earlier this year, they win the East outright. Lose, and they must hope for a Tennessee loss against either Missouri or Vanderbilt to win the division; otherwise, the Volunteers take it.

SEC – West: Alabama is the division champion.

Sun Belt: Troy can take a commanding position by virtue of beating Arkansas State this weekend, but cannot wrap up the conference outright even though they would have a tiebreaker over the next two teams in the standings. That’s because the Trojans still have two games left to play against Texas State and Georgia Southern. If Troy loses to the Red Wolves, there could be a three-team tie at the top between Troy, Arkansas State, and Appalachian State. Arkansas State and Appalachian State do not play each other this year, so to be honest, I’m not exactly sure what would happen if that were the case!

In small-school news, congratulations to the John Carroll Blue Streaks! The team from University Heights, Ohio won its first Ohio Athletic Conference title since 1994 – its first outright title since 1989. Well, that’s a nice story, you might say, but what’s the significance? It’s in the team that they had to beat this week to earn that title: our old friends from Alliance, Ohio, Mount Union. The 31-28 win by John Carroll over the Purple Raiders ended the following Mount Union streaks:

• 24 wins in a row
• 27 wins in a row over John Carroll
• 93 consecutive conference wins
• 98 consecutive wins at home
• 112 consecutive wins in the regular season
• 137 consecutive wins over all Division III opponents not named “Wisconsin-Whitewater”

And, oh yeah, 24 straight years of at least a share of the OAC conference title.  And, as evidenced by the 98-game home winning streak snapped, John Carroll did this at Mount Union’s home field. Despite John Carroll being 8-1 coming into this game, this has to be a prime candidate for the college football upset of the year.

Congratulations to AllySun, who wins week 11 with 202 points! Jeff4Bama was second with 201 points, and maestro was third with 199.

Standings after eleven weeks:

Twenty-two big games are on the schedule this week, and as we all learned last week, anything can happen, so think carefully as you pick and place your points wisely! Two Thursday games are on the docket, but the first game is Louisville at Houston, Thursday, November 17 @ 8 PM ET, so make sure to get your picks in by then!